![]() If by Easter the polls have continued their slide for National and Luxon, there will be a determination to fix the problem. Luxon probably has less time to turn things around than Hooton suggests. He suggests that Nicola Willis would do a much better job.Īlthough having an ugly leadership spill could be a “disaster” for National, Hooton says a carefully managed change could become a necessity if the polls continue to show Luxon is not working out: “If, three months hence, he is still struggling to connect and the polls are consistently suggesting National-Act will fall short of 61 seats then perhaps National will need to consider a sophisticated, managed leadership handover of the sort Labour has achieved.” He argues that “Luxon is very much struggling in the job”, and as a result “National should be very worried”. National Party insider Matthew Hooton recently wrote a paywalled column titled, “Don’t rule out National leadership change before election”. Luxon still stumbling and failing to respond to change This is a serious problem because leaders who aren’t trusted struggle to win elections. According to the last Newshub poll, while 53 per cent said they trusted Hipkins, only 37 per cent said the same for Luxon (with 44 per cent saying they actually distrusted Luxon). Other recent polls have had similar bad news for National. In contrast, Hipkins’ net favourability was +27 per cent. Luxon fell to -5 per cent, down from -1 in the previous month. But the more concerning result in the Curia poll was Luxon’s net favourability rating (the percentage of voters with a favourable opinion minus those with an unfavourable opinion). Luxon’s preferred Prime Ministerial support has also declined in recent polls. Yesterday’s Curia Research Poll showed National fell by nearly three points and Labour rose by the same amount, putting both major parties on 34 per cent. What’s more, although Luxon managed to significantly improve National’s polling in 2022, the improvements have stalled, and his personal poll ratings will be cause for alarm in the party.Īll recent opinion polls have shown support for National declining. But that novelty appears to have faded fast, especially now that Ardern has left. He managed to unify the party, and provided a fresh contrast to Ardern. However, proponents of a leadership change in National might well point to Labour changing from Andrew Little to Jacinda Ardern just seven weeks before the 2017 election, which turned out rather well. Panicked changes of leadership don’t generally project stability and unity to the public. The party must be tempted to replace him with his high-performing deputy, Nicola Willis, who might be better able to take on Prime Minister Chris Hipkins. ![]() The National Party will be desperate to avoid a repeat of the leadership musical chairs of 2020 when they rolled Simon Bridges as leader, replaced him with Todd Muller, only for Muller to step down after 53 days, leading to Judith Collins taking the party into the election.īut National will currently be considering whether a move needs to be made against leader Christopher Luxon, who continues to struggle and stumble. ![]()
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